01 / 21 · HeatSeak · Seed round
Every lead comes with the evidence behind it.
Business contacts. Reasons to reach out. Sources you can check.
Luka Lah & Klemen
Full investor deck · All amounts in USD · October 2026
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Proposed deal; founder-reported commitment · 2026-10-16
$200,000 straight equity for 50%. Klemen: $100,000 committed for 25%; open seat: $100,000 for 25%; Luka retains 50%. Subject to signed documents; information rights to confirm.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder instruction; short deck slide 7. Internal source; no public link.
Founder-supplied · 2026-10-16
Luka Lah built and runs lead engines in production and built HeatSeak’s engine. Klemen is partner, distribution and investor; surname to confirm. First partner pilot is planned, not a proven distribution network. Live product; no paying customers yet. Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month.
Source: Founder brief and current seed deck. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
02 / 21 · The problem + the product
A contact list does not tell you
why to call.
Small businesses spend time checking websites, finding the owner and deciding who might need their service.
An everyday search
A web designer asks: “Restaurants in Denver that need a new website.”
A useful answer
HeatSeak finds businesses, contact fields where available, and evidence behind each buying signal. Check the source before reaching out.
Intent is a clue, not a promise to buy. We offer a live demo on your industry.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Founder-supplied · 2026-10-16
Luka Lah built and runs lead engines in production and built HeatSeak’s engine. Klemen is partner, distribution and investor; surname to confirm. First partner pilot is planned, not a proven distribution network. Live product; no paying customers yet. Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month.
Source: Founder brief and current seed deck. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
03 / 21 · Why SaaS
A repeat need fits
a recurring subscription.
Repeat revenue
Customers subscribe monthly to keep finding prospects. Renewals can make revenue more predictable once retention is proven.
High data margin
Our model leaves about 87% after data costs. That is not profit: people, marketing and tools still need paying.
Market context
SaaS Capital’s 2025 model: 4.8× / 5.3× annual recurring revenue for bootstrapped / equity-backed private SaaS. ARR means annual recurring revenue: the current monthly subscription pace multiplied by 12. Established businesses; no promised exit.
Retention is the test: 74% annual gross revenue retention at $250–500 monthly revenue/account in ChartMogul’s older cohort.
Software businesses are often assessed as a multiple of recurring revenue because customers can return without rebuilding the product. HeatSeak still has to earn those renewals.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
$380 average monthly subscription revenue after discounts and 87% data margin are rounded current seed-model assumptions. $330.60 contribution/customer/month. At 4% monthly cancellations: modelled contribution lifetime value = $8,265. Acquisition cost = channel spend/new payers; payback = acquisition cost/$330.60. These are not measured customer economics.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Current seed deck; investor deck customer() and unit-economics formulas. Internal source; no public link.
External modelled market context · 2025
SaaS Capital 2025 modelled private SaaS revenue multiples: 4.8× bootstrapped; 5.3× equity-backed. Revenue multiples compare business value with annual recurring revenue. These are market context for established recurring-revenue businesses, not an exit promise or a price for HeatSeak.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Measured external cohort; older data · 2023; 2022 data
ChartMogul: median annual net revenue retention 86.8% and gross revenue retention 74.0% at $250–500 monthly revenue/account. About 2,100 SaaS companies; excludes those below $300K ARR; 2022 data published 2023. These are revenue retention measures, not monthly customer cancellation rates. Recurly 3.22% is not used because the supplied research flags its annual/monthly label as ambiguous.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
ChartMogul SaaS Retention Report
Recurly — period ambiguity noted · July 2026 data
04 / 21 · Why lead intelligence
The category is proven.
The small-team workflow is our opening.
Apollo
$100M Series D · Aug 2023.
~$150M ARR · May 2025, Sacra estimate.
Clay
~$150M ARR · May 2026, Sacra estimate. A large market for data and research workflows.
ZoomInfo
~$33,500/year median contract reported by Vendr. Quote-only; not an entry price.
Enterprise contracts can price out small teams. Apollo and Clay also have affordable/free options: our proposed edge is a simpler evidence-first workflow for local businesses and agencies.
Cheaper inputs
Negotiated intent data source: 1M records/month for $900. Contract to confirm; records still need checking.
Fast research
One search reads 20–25 websites in about 20–30 seconds. A measured capability, not a performance guarantee.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Reported financing; estimated ARR · 2023-08-29 / 2025-05
Apollo raised $100M Series D in August 2023 (TechCrunch, 29 Aug). Sacra estimates $150M ARR in May 2025; this is a third-party estimate, not audited revenue.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Sacra — Apollo · May 2025 estimate
Third-party estimate, unaudited · May 2026
Sacra estimates Clay reached $150M ARR in May 2026. Clay is a workflow/orchestration layer with AI research, not a directly comparable primary database.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Published prices; third-party contract median; qualitative assessment · 2026-10-02
Pricing captured 2 Oct 2026: Apollo free, Basic $49/seat/month billed annually. Clay free, Launch $167/month billed annually; source totals differ slightly across research. ZoomInfo quote-only, Vendr median $33,500/year across purchases (Feb 2026). Median contract is not a minimum or like-for-like plan. Evidence/setup/SMB comparisons are our qualitative assessment to test; competitors also have research and intent features.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Clay pricing · 2026-10-02
Vendr — ZoomInfo · February 2026
Founder-reported supply terms and measured sample · 2026-10-16
Negotiated intent data source: 1 million records/month for $900, founder-supplied, contract to confirm. A record is not a qualified lead. One measured search read 25 websites in 28 seconds; approximate 20–25 sites in 20–30 seconds is a summary, not a service guarantee.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; seed deck slide 4; production sample. Internal source; no public link.
05 / 21 · How we compare
Win a focused workflow.
Respect the incumbents.
| HeatSeak | Apollo | Clay | ZoomInfo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry point | $149/month; free trial | Free; Basic $49/seat/month, annual billing | Free; Launch $167/month, annual billing | Quote-only; ~$33,500/year median contract |
| Evidence per lead | Source behind each buying signal | Contact verification and research; source detail varies | AI research and configurable source fields | Research and intent features; source detail varies |
| Intent tiers | Low / Medium / High | Intent topics and filters | Build signal workflows | Enterprise intent product |
| SMB / agency fit | Local SMB and agency workflow | Broad sales teams, including SMB | Agencies and operations teams | Enterprise-led sales process |
| Setup effort¹ | Search, inspect, export | Configure filters and sequences | Configure tables and workflows | Configure platform and team process |
¹ Our qualitative assessment to test, not a timed head-to-head study. Apollo and ZoomInfo have much larger databases; Clay offers broader workflow flexibility. Evidence features are not exclusive to HeatSeak.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Published prices; third-party contract median; qualitative assessment · 2026-10-02
Pricing captured 2 Oct 2026: Apollo free, Basic $49/seat/month billed annually. Clay free, Launch $167/month billed annually; source totals differ slightly across research. ZoomInfo quote-only, Vendr median $33,500/year across purchases (Feb 2026). Median contract is not a minimum or like-for-like plan. Evidence/setup/SMB comparisons are our qualitative assessment to test; competitors also have research and intent features.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Clay pricing · 2026-10-02
Vendr — ZoomInfo · February 2026
Proposed product terms · 2026-10-16
Monthly proposed plans: Starter $149/250 credits; Agency $399/1,500; Scale $999/5,000. Volume 10K $1,500/10,000 leads; Volume 100K $15,000/100,000 leads. Low/Medium/High reveals use 1/2/3 credits; found owner mobile +5 credits, charged only on success. Listing business phone and export included; missing fields unavailable. Volume mobiles metered separately.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Investor deck pricing; trial-ladder spec; current seed deck. Internal source; no public link.
06 / 21 · The product today
Working searches.
Visible limits.
2 October 2026
25 enriched in 28 seconds. Denver roofing sample; observed production run.
6 October 2026
20 in 15–19 seconds. Additional city searches reported by the founder.
| Measure | Coverage · 25-business sample |
|---|---|
| 44% | |
| Owner name | 28% |
| Social profiles | 64% |
| Phone line type | 100% |
| Owner mobile | 0% |
What paid enrichment adds
Owner discovery, verified email and owner-mobile lookups through paid enrichment partners.
Current sample: 0 owner mobiles before that layer. Paid enrichment, intent tiers and self-serve billing still need completion or validation; no paid-layer coverage rate is claimed.
A listed business phone is not an owner’s personal mobile or permission to contact them.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Measured / founder-supplied observations · 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-06
2 Oct 2026: 25 enriched businesses in 28 seconds, from 70 found; 18 search credits ≈ $0.018, excluding the full delivery stack. Sample of 25 Denver roofers: email 44% (11), owner 28% (7), socials 64% (16), line type 100% (25), owner personal mobile 0%. 6 Oct 2026: 20 businesses in 15–19 seconds across additional city searches, supplied in this brief; underlying logs not independently inspected. These are small samples, not coverage guarantees.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Production observations in supplied research; founder brief. Internal source; no public link.
Reported partner prices; HeatSeak outcome unmeasured · 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-04
Paid enrichment partners add owner discovery, email verification and owner-mobile lookups. Supplied research quotes email $0.02–$0.055/found and mobile $0.099–$0.55/found. No measured HeatSeak paid-waterfall coverage is available. Costs and resale permissions require contract confirmation.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Vendor-stack research; investor deck emailCost and mobileCost. Internal source; no public link.
07 / 21 · Business model
Monthly plans.
Usage priced in credits.
| Plan | Monthly | Included |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | $149 | 250 credits |
| Agency | $399 | 1,500 credits |
| Scale | $999 | 5,000 credits |
| Volume 10K | $1,500 | 10,000 leads |
| Volume 100K | $15,000 | 100,000 leads |
About $380 / customer / month
After discounts, with about 87% data margin. Both are our estimates to test.
Low / Medium / High reveal: 1 / 2 / 3 credits. Found owner mobile: +5 credits, success only. Business phone and export included.
Volume plans meter mobiles separately. Paid contacts are available only where found.
CAC means customer acquisition cost. Modelled, not measured: contribution lifetime value = $380 × 87% ÷ 4% cancellations. CAC and payback update from the channel plan. Data margin excludes salaries, marketing, fixed tools, taxes and payment fees.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Proposed product terms · 2026-10-16
Monthly proposed plans: Starter $149/250 credits; Agency $399/1,500; Scale $999/5,000. Volume 10K $1,500/10,000 leads; Volume 100K $15,000/100,000 leads. Low/Medium/High reveals use 1/2/3 credits; found owner mobile +5 credits, charged only on success. Listing business phone and export included; missing fields unavailable. Volume mobiles metered separately.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Investor deck pricing; trial-ladder spec; current seed deck. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
$380 average monthly subscription revenue after discounts and 87% data margin are rounded current seed-model assumptions. $330.60 contribution/customer/month. At 4% monthly cancellations: modelled contribution lifetime value = $8,265. Acquisition cost = channel spend/new payers; payback = acquisition cost/$330.60. These are not measured customer economics.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Current seed deck; investor deck customer() and unit-economics formulas. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
The inherited trial-data allowance is $25 per new payer. The corrected fixed stack has no unallocated trial-data reserve. Expanded acquisition CAC = channel CAC + $25; it is a sensitivity measure, not extra cash spending included in this runway. The requested runway uses the fixed $21,005 budget plus 13% of customer revenue for variable data. Trial consumption must fit included subscription credits or that delivery allowance; otherwise the cash projection understates spending. Founder salary is outside CAC and inside runway.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
08 / 21 · Operating costs
What it costs to run HeatSeak
Fixed monthly stack · launch
| Group | Monthly | What it is for |
|---|---|---|
| A · Data & intent | $3,055 | Feeds and contact research. First niche intent feed: $1,500 Second intent source: $900 / 1M records Owner-discovery database: $299 Mobile & email finder #1: $99 / 5,000 credits Coverage-fallback finder: $55 / 1,000 credits Email verification: ~$12 Search & maps API: ~$100 Phone-type checks: up to $90 / 600 per day |
| B · AI & development | $410 | Build and run the engine. AI coding/reasoning subscriptions: $310 Engine/tool AI tokens: ~$100 (estimate) |
| C · Hosting & infrastructure | $140 | Host the product. Server: ~$75 · front-end hosting: ~$40 Database: $25 |
| D · Founder pay · Luka | $10,000 | Only developer, replacing three full-stack developers |
| E · Sales & marketing | $5,500 | Ads, clips, outbound, partners and business development |
| F · Contractors & support | $1,900 | Delivery support and specialist help |
| Total fixed launch budget | $21,005 / month | $8,000 company/legal + $2,000 launch + $3,800 first niche feed setup = $13,800 one-time. $186,200 operating cash remains; Klemen is not paid from the round. |
Data cost per customer · modelled
| Plan | Revenue / month | Data / month | Left after data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | $149 | ~$7 | $142 · 95.3% |
| Agency | $399 | ~$37 | $362 · 90.7% |
| Scale | $999 | ~$121 | $878 · 87.9% |
| Volume 10K | $1,500 | ~$335 | $1,165 · 77.7% |
| Volume 100K | $15,000 | ~$3,350 | $11,650 · 77.7% |
Monthly list prices; expected usage, not maximum allowances. Fixed spending, fees and tax still need paying. Cash model keeps the blended 87% data-margin estimate.
Variable cost waterfall · per lead unless marked
Basic ≈ $0.006 · with email ≈ $0.03–$0.06 · with email + owner mobile ≈ $0.13–$0.61 · + intent when used. Included credits can overlap usage costs; the cash model conservatively retains fixed subscriptions plus the variable-data allowance.
Waterfall data and billing units
| Step | Variable cost | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Find business | ~$0.0003 / business | Measured |
| 2 · Read website | ~$0 marginal | Our servers · estimate |
| 3 · AI plan / extract | ~$0.0003 / search | Estimate · per search |
| 4 · Phone-type check | $0.005 / check | Published price |
| 5 · Work email + verify | $0.02–$0.055 | When needed · published |
| 6 · Owner mobile | $0.099–$0.55 | Per found mobile · published |
| 7 · Intent record | $0.05 API / ~$0.0009 volume | Published / negotiated |
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Negotiated / published price / estimate — labelled per item · 2026-10-16
A. Data & intent: first niche intent feed $1,500/month plus $3,800 one-time setup per niche feed (negotiated, founder-supplied); second intent source $900/month for 1M records (negotiated); owner-discovery database $299/month (published price, founder-supplied); mobile & email finder #1 $99/month for 5,000 credits (published price); coverage-fallback finder $55/month for 1,000 credits (published price); email verification approximately $12/month (estimate); search & maps API approximately $100/month (estimate at published approximately $1 per 1,000 credits); phone-type checks up to $90/month at published $0.005 each, capped at 600/day over an estimated 30-day month. Subtotal $3,055. Quotes and included-credit limits require confirmation.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Published price / estimate · 2026-10-16
B. AI & development tooling: coding/reasoning subscriptions $310/month (published prices supplied by founder); engine/tool AI tokens approximately $100/month (our estimate to test). Subtotal $410.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Published price / estimate · 2026-10-16
C. Hosting & infrastructure: server approximately $75/month and front-end hosting approximately $40/month (our estimates to test); database $25/month (published price supplied by founder). Subtotal $140.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
D. Luka founder pay $10,000/month. E. Sales & marketing $5,500/month, from live channel allocations. F. Contractors & support $1,900/month. These are founder budget decisions, not salary benchmarks. Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Measured / published price · 2026-10-16
Step 1, find a business: measured 18 search credits to find 70 businesses. At published approximately $1 per 1,000 credits, $0.018 / 70 = $0.000257 per business, rounded to approximately $0.0003. Measured search cost is not the full cost of an enriched lead.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Step 2, read its website: approximately $0 marginal third-party charge on our servers. Hosting, capacity and engineering costs remain in fixed spending.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Step 3, AI planning/extraction: approximately $0.0003 per search, not per lead. This is an estimate; allocation per lead depends on the businesses processed in that search.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Published price; 30-day allowance estimate · 2026-10-16
Step 4, phone-type check: published $0.005 per number checked. Launch allowance caps checks at 600/day: 600 × 30 days × $0.005 = $90/month. Line type does not verify that a number belongs to the owner.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Published price, founder-supplied · 2026-10-16
Step 5, work email find and verify: $0.02–$0.055 when needed, based on supplied published partner prices. Actual verification charges and successful-match billing depend on contract and usage.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Published price, founder-supplied · 2026-10-16
Step 6, owner mobile: $0.099–$0.55 per found mobile, supplied published partner prices. Availability is not guaranteed.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Published price / negotiated / derived unit cost · 2026-10-16
Step 7, intent: $0.05 per record via API (published price supplied by founder), or approximately $0.0009 per record at full use of the negotiated second-source 1M records/month for $900. These are alternative routes, not two charges for the same record; unused capacity raises effective cost per record. The first niche feed is separately budgeted at $1,500/month plus $3,800 setup per niche.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Our estimate to test; arithmetic from supplied unit costs · 2026-10-16
Rounded illustrative variable data costs: basic lead approximately $0.006; with work email approximately $0.03–$0.06; with email and owner mobile approximately $0.13–$0.61. Add intent only when used. Basic allowance rounds discovery, website and phone checks plus small processing costs; AI estimate is per search. These are per-lead costs, not per-customer monthly costs. Fixed subscriptions remain separate; included credits may overlap usage costs, which this runway conservatively does not net out.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Our estimate to test — existing usage model · 2026-10-16
Existing usage-model estimates per customer/month: Starter approximately $7 data on $149 revenue (leaves $142, 95.3%); Agency $37 on $399 (leaves $362, 90.7%); Scale $121 on $999 (leaves $878, 87.9%); Volume 10K $335 on $1,500 (leaves $1,165, 77.7%); Volume 100K $3,350 on $15,000 (leaves $11,650, 77.7%). Margins use rounded data costs and monthly list prices. These are expected usage costs, not full-credit-use guarantees; exclude fixed costs, payment fees and tax. The cash model retains the founder-specified blended $380/customer and 87% margin.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
$200,000 raised less $8,000 company/legal, $2,000 launch setup and $3,800 first niche intent feed setup = $186,200 operating cash. Fixed monthly: data & intent $3,055; AI & development tooling $410; hosting & infrastructure $140; Luka $10,000; sales & marketing $5,500; contractors & support $1,900. Total $21,005. Klemen is not paid from the round. Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
09 / 21 · Go-to-market overview
Five ways to reach buyers.
One product experience.
Free account → first result → qualified call → 50-lead test list → paid plan
Direct checkout stays available. Count each customer once by acquisition source; founder meetings exclude leads already counted in another channel.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Latest investor deck illustration per 100 free accounts: 50 first results, 20 qualified bookings/test lists, 15 attended calls, 8 paid after the list plus 4 direct = 12 payers. This supersedes the older trial spec’s separate 3.9-payer experiment. Free account: 10 reveals + 2 found mobiles, 7 days. Qualified call: 50 additional leads + 10 found mobiles; coverage may fall short. First result within two minutes is a target. Illustration is fixed; channel sliders test independent conversion assumptions.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Investor deck trialCohort and trial-ladder; trial spec for entitlements. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
One active partner pilot replaces the old deck’s ten-partner assumption to match this raise. Three introductions/month × 40% intro-to-trial × 25% trial-to-paid = 0.3 payer/month at the $1,000 business-development allocation. Partner activity scales with that allocation; founder meetings are separate.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; investor deck partner calculator. Internal source; no public link.
10 / 21 · Channel 1 · Own engine + outbound
Our lead engine finds
our own customers.
Use HeatSeak to find agencies and businesses, then send a relevant, evidence-backed message. Instantly’s early growth included its own outbound product and 22 existing agency clients.
Instantly reports 3.43% average replies; Belkins reports 0.45% per email sent. Different denominators. Neither validates our positive-reply assumption.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · Research reviewed 2026-10-02; no source date available
Twenty starting inboxes is an operating choice. The research gives per-inbox sending guidance but no recommended inbox count for HeatSeak.
No supported published range. The editable control bounds are planning settings, not evidence.
Source: No source for this input in the supplied research. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
benchmark range, not HeatSeak data · 2026-01-12; Jan 1 to Dec 18, 2025 data
Twenty-five emails per inbox per day is a mature sending target, not a first-day sending recommendation. Vendor guidance calls for warming up gradually, and suitable volume depends on inbox provider and deliverability.
Instantly: start at 5 to 10/day, ramp over 4 to 6 weeks; Smartlead: warmup 15 to 25/day, email service 10 to 20, generic SMTP 20 cold/day, stay below 50.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-06-26; 2025 data
The 1% default means positive replies per unique prospect, not all replies per email sent, and is to be measured in our first 30 days. No primary positive-reply benchmark was found; Belkins reports 0.45% total replies per sent email and Instantly reports 3.43% with a different denominator, so neither validates 1% positive replies.
No supported positive-reply range. Belkins: 7.53M sends / 34,393 replies; earlier ~5% rates used opens, not sends. Instantly: vendor average across its own platform.
Belkins cold-email response rates
Instantly Cold Email Benchmark Report · 2026-01-12; Jan 1 to Dec 18, 2025 data
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · Research reviewed 2026-10-02; no source date available
Forty percent of positive replies becoming meetings is untested. Belkins reports later pipeline stages, not this positive-reply-to-meeting denominator.
No supported published range. The editable control bounds are planning settings, not evidence.
Source: No source for this input in the supplied research. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2024
The 20% default is a directional proxy from Ebsta’s 19% to 21% opportunity win rates. Sales-accepted opportunities are later than a raw meeting; Belkins’ 16.04% trial-to-won rate is also a different stage.
Ebsta: 21% in 2024 and 19% in 2025; Belkins: 16.04% ICP/trial-to-won in one agency pipeline, not meeting-to-paid.
Ebsta / Pavilion B2B Sales Benchmarks
Ebsta GTM Benchmarks · 2025
Belkins sales pipeline conversion · 2025-05-23; 2023 to 2024 data
20 sending days ÷ 3 touches per prospect. Capacity scales with the outbound allocation.
20 inboxes → 10,000 sends ÷ 3 = 3,333.33 prospects → 33.33 positive replies → 13.33 meetings → 2.67 paid.
Risk: inbox warmup and poor targeting can cut replies. Start small; check delivery and stop ineffective sequences.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Founder/company-reported, unaudited · 2024 / 2023 / 2019
lemlist: about $200K ARR after year one (Growth Unhinged; source also has a $250K snippet, use approximate). Instantly: $200K MRR / $2.4M ARR at about nine months, from founder interview; began with 22 agency clients, own-product outbound, AppSumo and community. PhantomBuster: about $50K MRR / $600K ARR after about three years, July 2019 founder interview. These are selected winners and differing ages, not a representative sample.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Latka — Instantly early growth · 2023-06-07; Oct 2022 interview
Latka — PhantomBuster · July 2019 milestone
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
20 mature inboxes × 25 sends/day × 20 days ÷ 3 touches/prospect. Sending capacity scales linearly with outbound spend relative to $1,000. This is an unquoted capacity assumption; fractional inboxes represent average capacity. No warmup delay in the runway.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Investor deck outbound calculator; fixed-budget adaptation. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · Research reviewed 2026-10-02; no source date available
Twenty sending days approximates a working month. No outcome benchmark in the research validates this schedule.
No supported published range. The editable control bounds are planning settings, not evidence.
Source: No source for this input in the supplied research. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · Research reviewed 2026-10-02; no source date available
Three emails per prospect is a proposed sequence length. No directly applicable sequence benchmark is supplied.
No supported published range. The editable control bounds are planning settings, not evidence.
Source: No source for this input in the supplied research. Internal source; no public link.
11 / 21 · Channel 2 · Clippers
Show the product.
Pay for reach carefully.
Turn live demos and founder explanations into clips for a curated audience. The research reports Lovable at $2 per 1,000 views; Whop campaigns set their own rates.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
benchmark range, not HeatSeak data · 2026-08-12
The $2 default matches the reported Lovable clipping campaign. Whop has no official rate card, these are secondary campaign observations, and the Vyro source says to verify its headline rate on the platform.
Observed standard clipping: $1 to $3 per 1,000 views; Lovable $2; Vyro headline $3. Platform and processing fees may add cost and are not separately modeled.
OpusClip review of Whop Content Rewards
FindClout clipping pricing review · 2026-08-26
OpusClip review of Vyro · 2025-10-15
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-09-22
The 0.1% default is untested and is to be measured in our first 30 days. No published short-form view-to-site benchmark was found; the linked one-account study is context, not support for this rate.
No supported benchmark. 0.1% to 0.5% is only a sensitivity test range; one study had 1 attributed organic-video session and 0 leads over 90 days.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2024
The 3% clip-visit-to-trial rate remains an estimate for this channel. General SaaS page benchmarks do not measure the quality of traffic from paid clips.
Context only: 3.8% SaaS landing-page conversion and 4.5% visitor-to-free-trial signups; no clip-specific benchmark.
Unbounce SaaS Conversion Benchmark Report
ChartMogul SaaS Conversion Report · 2026-02-04; Jan 2026 survey
Why this number · sources & assumptions
benchmark range, not HeatSeak data · 2026-02-04; Jan 2026 survey
The 10% clip-trial-to-paid default is inside ChartMogul’s great 10% to 15% range for no-card trials. That survey does not isolate customers acquired through clips.
No-card trials: good 4% to 6%, great 10% to 15%; not a clip-specific result.
$1,500 ÷ $2 × 1,000 = 750,000 views → 750 visits → 22.5 free accounts → 2.25 paid.
Risk: cheap views may never become buyers. No credible clip-to-site benchmark was found. Track visits and paid accounts; cap campaigns and review audience quality.
The reach model treats the allocation as view spend. Production and platform fees reduce bought reach if they must come from that same allocation.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
benchmark range, not HeatSeak data · 2026-08-12
The $2 default matches the reported Lovable clipping campaign. Whop has no official rate card, these are secondary campaign observations, and the Vyro source says to verify its headline rate on the platform.
Observed standard clipping: $1 to $3 per 1,000 views; Lovable $2; Vyro headline $3. Platform and processing fees may add cost and are not separately modeled.
OpusClip review of Whop Content Rewards
FindClout clipping pricing review · 2026-08-26
OpusClip review of Vyro · 2025-10-15
our estimate to test · 2026-09-22
The 0.1% default is untested and is to be measured in our first 30 days. No published short-form view-to-site benchmark was found; the linked one-account study is context, not support for this rate.
No supported benchmark. 0.1% to 0.5% is only a sensitivity test range; one study had 1 attributed organic-video session and 0 leads over 90 days.
12 / 21 · Channel 3 · Paid ads
Buy a small test.
Measure the whole path.
Search and social campaigns can put a live product example in front of a chosen audience. $5 per click is our cross-channel test assumption.
Context: WordStream Business Services search $5.58–$5.87/click; ChartMogul no-card trial-to-paid “good” 4–6%, “great” 10–15%. OpenView/Lenny 8–12%; First Page Sage 17.4% on paid traffic. Different samples, not interchangeable promises.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2025; data Apr 2024 to Mar 2025
$5 is a cross-channel test assumption, not a B2B SaaS search benchmark. The sources use different ad objectives and advertiser populations, so their prices should not be pooled as one sample.
Business Services search: $5.58 to $5.87; social advertising Business Services traffic: $0.75; social advertising all-industry lead campaigns: $1.92; B2B SaaS non-brand search platform: $13.75 (53 accounts); professional network: $9.39.
WordStream search platform Ads benchmarks 2025
WordStream search platform Ads benchmarks 2026 · 2026; data Apr 2025 to Mar 2026
WordStream Facebook Ads benchmarks 2025 · 2025; data Apr 2024 to Jun 2025
PipeRocket B2B SaaS search platform Ads research · Data Jul 2025 to Jun 2026
Metadata professional network Ads benchmarks · 2026-08-25; 2025 campaigns
Why this number · sources & assumptions
benchmark range, not HeatSeak data · 2026-02-04; Jan 2026 survey
The 4% default sits near 45 trial signups per 1,000 visitors in ChartMogul and the 3.8% SaaS landing-page median in Unbounce. Unbounce conversions include actions other than a product trial.
3.8% SaaS landing-page conversion; 4.5% free-trial signup rate. Different populations and conversion definitions.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
benchmark range, not HeatSeak data · 2026-02-04; Jan 2026 survey
The 12% default assumes a trial without a card requirement. These are cross-company benchmarks, not HeatSeak conversions.
ChartMogul: good 4% to 6%, great 10% to 15%; OpenView/Lenny: good 8% to 12%; First Page Sage: 17.4% paid traffic and 18.2% organic, agency-client sample.
ChartMogul SaaS Conversion Report
Lenny / OpenView free-to-paid conversion survey · 2023
First Page Sage trial conversion benchmarks · 2025; Q1 2022 to Q3 2025 data
$2,000 ÷ $5 = 400 clicks → 16 free accounts → 1.92 paid.
Risk: a click is easy to buy; a repeat customer is harder. Compare paid conversion and retention by campaign before increasing spend.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2025; data Apr 2024 to Mar 2025
$5 is a cross-channel test assumption, not a B2B SaaS search benchmark. The sources use different ad objectives and advertiser populations, so their prices should not be pooled as one sample.
Business Services search: $5.58 to $5.87; social advertising Business Services traffic: $0.75; social advertising all-industry lead campaigns: $1.92; B2B SaaS non-brand search platform: $13.75 (53 accounts); professional network: $9.39.
WordStream search platform Ads benchmarks 2025
WordStream search platform Ads benchmarks 2026 · 2026; data Apr 2025 to Mar 2026
WordStream Facebook Ads benchmarks 2025 · 2025; data Apr 2024 to Jun 2025
PipeRocket B2B SaaS search platform Ads research · Data Jul 2025 to Jun 2026
Metadata professional network Ads benchmarks · 2026-08-25; 2025 campaigns
benchmark range, not HeatSeak data · 2026-02-04; Jan 2026 survey
The 12% default assumes a trial without a card requirement. These are cross-company benchmarks, not HeatSeak conversions.
ChartMogul: good 4% to 6%, great 10% to 15%; OpenView/Lenny: good 8% to 12%; First Page Sage: 17.4% paid traffic and 18.2% organic, agency-client sample.
ChartMogul SaaS Conversion Report
Lenny / OpenView free-to-paid conversion survey · 2023
First Page Sage trial conversion benchmarks · 2025; Q1 2022 to Q3 2025 data
13 / 21 · Channels 4 + 5 · Founder, partners and referrals
Start with conversations.
Earn introductions.
Klemen’s partner network: first partner pilot. Founder meetings and partner introductions are separate from outbound and paid-acquired leads.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-04
Founders’ estimate: 20 meetings/month × 25% close rate = 5 new paying customers/month, proven or disproven in the first 30 days. Higher multiplies the close rate by 1.8; meetings are activity, not a conversion step.
Editable planning assumption
Source: Founders’ review call, 4 Oct 2026. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-04
Founders’ estimate: 20 meetings/month × 25% close rate = 5 new paying customers/month, proven or disproven in the first 30 days. Higher multiplies the close rate by 1.8; meetings are activity, not a conversion step.
Editable planning assumption
Source: Founders’ review call, 4 Oct 2026. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
One active partner pilot replaces the old deck’s ten-partner assumption to match this raise. Three introductions/month × 40% intro-to-trial × 25% trial-to-paid = 0.3 payer/month at the $1,000 business-development allocation. Partner activity scales with that allocation; founder meetings are separate.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; investor deck partner calculator. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · Research reviewed 2026-10-02; no source date available
Three introductions per partner per month is a test assumption. The research does not provide this activity benchmark.
No supported published range. The editable control bounds are planning settings, not evidence.
Source: No source for this input in the supplied research. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Zero eligible existing paying customers at launch. The illustrative referral calculator uses a fixed eligible customer base × 2% new paying referrals per month. It does not compound into the runway; set a future base to test a later steady month. No additional fee assumed; administration comes from the shared partners/business-development budget.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Pre-revenue seed deck; investor deck wordOfMouth. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · Undated; reviewed 2026-10-02
The 2% monthly referral default has thin evidence and remains an estimate. GrowSurf’s vendor statistics describe the share of new customers from referral programs, not a monthly referral rate per existing customer.
GrowSurf reports 1 in 5 new customers and 15% of annual recurring revenue (ARR) from referrals; its 20% to 40% referral/word-of-mouth claim has no linked primary citation or date. No direct monthly-rate benchmark.
Founder: 20 × 25% = 5 paid. Partners: 3 intros × 40% × 25% = 0.3 paid. Referrals: 0 eligible × 2% = 0 paid.
Partner intro → trial 40%; trial → paid 25%: our estimates to test. GrowSurf’s “1 in 5 new customers” is vendor-reported referral share, not a monthly referral conversion rate. Referrals start at zero with no paying base.
Risk: warm access does not guarantee sales. Measure introductions, qualified trials and paid outcomes separately.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · Research reviewed 2026-10-02; no source date available
Partner introductions converting to trials at 40% is untested. Belkins measures qualified opportunities to wins, not introductions to trials.
No supported published range. The editable control bounds are planning settings, not evidence.
Source: No source for this input in the supplied research. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · Research reviewed 2026-10-02; no source date available
The 25% partner trial-to-paid rate is a planning estimate. Referral evidence in the report is thin and does not support this exact stage.
No supported published range. The editable control bounds are planning settings, not evidence.
Source: No source for this input in the supplied research. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · Undated; reviewed 2026-10-02
The 2% monthly referral default has thin evidence and remains an estimate. GrowSurf’s vendor statistics describe the share of new customers from referral programs, not a monthly referral rate per existing customer.
GrowSurf reports 1 in 5 new customers and 15% of annual recurring revenue (ARR) from referrals; its 20% to 40% referral/word-of-mouth claim has no linked primary citation or date. No direct monthly-rate benchmark.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
One active partner pilot replaces the old deck’s ten-partner assumption to match this raise. Three introductions/month × 40% intro-to-trial × 25% trial-to-paid = 0.3 payer/month at the $1,000 business-development allocation. Partner activity scales with that allocation; founder meetings are separate.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; investor deck partner calculator. Internal source; no public link.
14 / 21 · The trial ladder
Give buyers a useful test.
Then ask for the subscription.
| Per 100 free accounts | Illustrative count |
|---|---|
| First useful result | 50 |
| Qualified bookings / prepared lists | 20 |
| Attended calls | 15 |
| Paid after test list | 8 |
| Paid directly, without call | 4 |
| Total paying | 12 |
Our estimate to test, not observed conversion. This fixed illustration matches the default 12% ads trial-to-paid assumption; channel sliders test alternatives. Founder sales are a separate path. Report coverage shortfalls instead of inventing contacts.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Latest investor deck illustration per 100 free accounts: 50 first results, 20 qualified bookings/test lists, 15 attended calls, 8 paid after the list plus 4 direct = 12 payers. This supersedes the older trial spec’s separate 3.9-payer experiment. Free account: 10 reveals + 2 found mobiles, 7 days. Qualified call: 50 additional leads + 10 found mobiles; coverage may fall short. First result within two minutes is a target. Illustration is fixed; channel sliders test independent conversion assumptions.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Investor deck trialCohort and trial-ladder; trial spec for entitlements. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-04
Budget $25 of free-trial data per new payer. Working allowances are $1–$2 per free account and $5–$11 per buyer-specific test list; actual cost per payer depends on how many free users and lists convert. The illustrative cohort is a separate experiment, not evidence for $25.
$0–$100 per payer; default $25
Source: Founder-supplied, to confirm. Internal source; no public link.
15 / 21 · The combined monthly plan
A fixed budget.
A visible customer bridge.
Sales & marketing: $5,500 / month
Move one allocation; the other three rebalance to keep the total fixed. All channel outputs and runway lines update together.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Ads $2,000; clips $1,500; outbound inboxes/tools $1,000; partners/business development $1,000. Total fixed at $5,500. Editing one allocation redistributes the balance proportionally across the other three. All channels share these allocations; no extra channel spend is added.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; model adaptation. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Ads $2,000; clips $1,500; outbound inboxes/tools $1,000; partners/business development $1,000. Total fixed at $5,500. Editing one allocation redistributes the balance proportionally across the other three. All channels share these allocations; no extra channel spend is added.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; model adaptation. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Ads $2,000; clips $1,500; outbound inboxes/tools $1,000; partners/business development $1,000. Total fixed at $5,500. Editing one allocation redistributes the balance proportionally across the other three. All channels share these allocations; no extra channel spend is added.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; model adaptation. Internal source; no public link.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Ads $2,000; clips $1,500; outbound inboxes/tools $1,000; partners/business development $1,000. Total fixed at $5,500. Editing one allocation redistributes the balance proportionally across the other three. All channels share these allocations; no extra channel spend is added.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; model adaptation. Internal source; no public link.
| Channel | Monthly allocation | New payers / month | Channel cost / payer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own engine + outbound | $1,000 | 2.67 | $375 |
| Clippers | $1,500 | 2.25 | $667 |
| Paid ads | $2,000 | 1.92 | $1,042 |
| Founder + partners | $1,000 shared with referrals | 5.3 | Shared below |
| Customer referrals | Included above | 0 | Shared below |
| Relationships combined | No additional spend | 5.3 | $189 |
2.67 outbound + 2.25 clips + 1.92 ads + 5 founder + 0.3 partner + 0 referrals = 12.14 new payers/month. $5,500 ÷ unrounded total = $453 channel cost/customer.
Trial-data sensitivity: $303/month ($25/new payer). Expanded acquisition CAC: $478. No separate reserve remains in the fixed stack; trial use must fit included credits or the 13% delivery allowance. Any excess reduces runway.
Our estimate to test: mature channel output begins in month 1 and repeats. Founder salary stays in operating spending. Referrals use the fixed eligible base on slide 12; no automatic referral growth. Attribution must avoid counting a buyer twice.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Ads $2,000; clips $1,500; outbound inboxes/tools $1,000; partners/business development $1,000. Total fixed at $5,500. Editing one allocation redistributes the balance proportionally across the other three. All channels share these allocations; no extra channel spend is added.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief; model adaptation. Internal source; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
The inherited trial-data allowance is $25 per new payer. The corrected fixed stack has no unallocated trial-data reserve. Expanded acquisition CAC = channel CAC + $25; it is a sensitivity measure, not extra cash spending included in this runway. The requested runway uses the fixed $21,005 budget plus 13% of customer revenue for variable data. Trial consumption must fit included subscription credits or that delivery allowance; otherwise the cash projection understates spending. Founder salary is outside CAC and inside runway.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
16 / 21 · Comparable launches
Real launches vary widely.
Our plan is a hypothesis.
| Company | Early milestone | How they started | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| lemlist | ~$200K ARR · year 1 | Community, Product Hunt, AppSumo | Founder/company-reported |
| Instantly | ~$2.4M ARR · ~9 months | 22 agency clients, own outbound, AppSumo | Founder-reported |
| PhantomBuster | ~$600K ARR · ~3 years | Self-serve, growth-hacker community | Founder-reported · July 2019 |
| Measure | Annual recurring revenue (different ages) |
|---|---|
| lemlist · year 1 | $200,000 |
| Instantly · month ~9 | $2,400,000 |
| HeatSeak · month 12 | $535,847 |
ChartMogul: only 3.3% reached $1M ARR within year one of first revenue; 13.4% within three years. Selected success stories are not the odds.
At these settings HeatSeak reaches $535,847 annual recurring revenue at month 12 (117.51 active customers). This is above lemlist’s early milestone and below Instantly’s exceptional early milestone. It is our estimate to test, not measured traction or a percentile rank.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Founder/company-reported, unaudited · 2024 / 2023 / 2019
lemlist: about $200K ARR after year one (Growth Unhinged; source also has a $250K snippet, use approximate). Instantly: $200K MRR / $2.4M ARR at about nine months, from founder interview; began with 22 agency clients, own-product outbound, AppSumo and community. PhantomBuster: about $50K MRR / $600K ARR after about three years, July 2019 founder interview. These are selected winners and differing ages, not a representative sample.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Latka — Instantly early growth · 2023-06-07; Oct 2022 interview
Latka — PhantomBuster · July 2019 milestone
Measured external cohort · 2025-10-15
Of 6,525 software companies, 3.3% reached $1M ARR within one year, 13.4% within three, 25.1% within five of first revenue. Separate 2023 report: median time about two years nine months among businesses reaching the milestone. Neither is a probability forecast for HeatSeak.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
ChartMogul — The odds of making it
ChartMogul 2023 growth report · 2023-08-30
17 / 21 · Runway · Live from the combined plan
Enough time to test.
Sales decide what comes next.
| Use of funds | USD |
|---|---|
| Company/legal · one-time | $8,000 |
| Launch setup · one-time | $2,000 |
| First niche feed setup · one-time | $3,800 |
| Total one-time | $13,800 |
| A · Data & intent / month | $3,055 |
| B · AI & development / month | $410 |
| C · Hosting & infrastructure / month | $140 |
| D · Luka / month | $10,000 |
| E · Sales & marketing / month | $5,500 |
| F · Contractors & support / month | $1,900 |
| Total monthly | $21,005 |
Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month. Klemen is not paid from this round.
64 paying customers cover monthly spending.
$21,005 ÷ ($380 × 87%) = 63.5.
Cash balance · USD · months 0–18
| Scenario | New payers / month | Cash runway | Operating break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero sales | 0 | 8.86 months | Never |
| Half the plan | 6.07 | Beyond 18 months | Month 14 |
| The plan | 12.14 | Beyond 18 months | Month 6 |
View all chart data · months 0–18
| Month | Zero sales · cash | Half plan · cash | Plan · cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | $186,200 | $186,200 | $186,200 |
| 1 | $165,195 | $167,201 | $169,207 |
| 2 | $144,190 | $150,128 | $156,067 |
| 3 | $123,185 | $134,904 | $146,624 |
| 4 | $102,180 | $121,455 | $140,731 |
| 5 | $81,175 | $109,710 | $138,246 |
| 6 | $60,170 | $99,601 | $139,032 |
| 7 | $39,165 | $91,062 | $142,959 |
| 8 | $18,160 | $84,031 | $149,902 |
| 9 | −$2,845 | $78,447 | $159,738 |
| 10 | −$23,850 | $74,252 | $172,354 |
| 11 | −$44,855 | $71,391 | $187,637 |
| 12 | −$65,860 | $69,810 | $205,481 |
| 13 | −$86,865 | $69,459 | $225,783 |
| 14 | −$107,870 | $70,288 | $248,446 |
| 15 | −$128,875 | $72,249 | $273,374 |
| 16 | −$149,880 | $75,298 | $300,477 |
| 17 | −$170,885 | $79,392 | $329,668 |
| 18 | −$191,890 | $84,487 | $360,864 |
Our estimate to test: $186,200 after setup; $380/customer/month; 87% data margin; 4% monthly cancellations before new additions. Same new-customer total each month; full first-month payment. Negative cash marks a funding gap, not permission to keep spending. Fixed monthly spending: $21,005; one-time setup: $13,800. Zero-sales runway: 8.9 months.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
$200,000 raised less $8,000 company/legal, $2,000 launch setup and $3,800 first niche intent feed setup = $186,200 operating cash. Fixed monthly: data & intent $3,055; AI & development tooling $410; hosting & infrastructure $140; Luka $10,000; sales & marketing $5,500; contractors & support $1,900. Total $21,005. Klemen is not paid from the round. Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
our estimate to test · 2026-10-16
Start with zero paying customers and $186,200 operating cash after $13,800 one-time setup. Each month retain 96% of existing customers, then add the live combined-plan new-payer total. Half-plan halves that total. Each customer pays $380/month; 87% data margin. Fixed spending $21,005/month. Required customers: $21,005 / ($380 × 87%) = 63.536, rounded up to 64. Zero-sales runway: $186,200 / $21,005 = 8.8646 months. New customers pay a full first month; no taxes, payment fees, delays, expansion, extra financing or cost growth. Variable data costs are deducted through the 13% margin allowance in addition to fixed launch subscriptions; overlapping included credits are not netted out. Negative balances show an unfunded gap.
Source: Founder cost-stack correction; supplied pricing and measurements. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
18 / 21 · The deal
$200,000 for
50% of the company.
Straight equity: investors buy shares in HeatSeak.
Committed · Klemen
$100,000 for 25%
One seat open · new investor
$100,000 for 25%
Ownership after the full round
| Holder | Ownership |
|---|---|
| Luka | 50% |
| Klemen | 25% |
| New investor | 25% |
Information rights—company updates and financial information—are to be confirmed in the documents. Proposed terms, subject to signed documents.
An early-stage investment can lose all its value
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Proposed deal; founder-reported commitment · 2026-10-16
$200,000 straight equity for 50%. Klemen: $100,000 committed for 25%; open seat: $100,000 for 25%; Luka retains 50%. Subject to signed documents; information rights to confirm.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder instruction; short deck slide 7. Internal source; no public link.
19 / 21 · Team
The builder.
The distribution partner.
Luka Lah · Founder
Built and runs lead engines in production. Built HeatSeak’s engine. Leads product, delivery and early customer learning.
Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month.
Klemen · Partner, distribution and investor
Supports distribution and partner introductions. $100,000 committed. First partner pilot is the next test; surname to confirm.
The next proof is commercial: buyers who pay, use the product and renew.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Founder-supplied · 2026-10-16
Luka Lah built and runs lead engines in production and built HeatSeak’s engine. Klemen is partner, distribution and investor; surname to confirm. First partner pilot is planned, not a proven distribution network. Live product; no paying customers yet. Luka is the only developer, replacing three full-stack developers; founder pay is $10,000/month.
Source: Founder brief and current seed deck. Internal supplied evidence; no public link.
Proposed deal; founder-reported commitment · 2026-10-16
$200,000 straight equity for 50%. Klemen: $100,000 committed for 25%; open seat: $100,000 for 25%; Luka retains 50%. Subject to signed documents; information rights to confirm.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder instruction; short deck slide 7. Internal source; no public link.
20 / 21 · Risks + response
Name the risks.
Make the next action specific.
- Data supply changesConfirm resale rights, keep source trails and deletion controls, and test alternative paid enrichment partners.
- Conversion is slowerMeasure each step by channel; stop weak campaigns and cut spending before cash becomes tight.
- Competition respondsTest evidence quality and local-business usefulness against incumbent workflows with the same buyer task.
- Cash runs shortReview cash and retention monthly; use zero-sales and half-plan cases to decide cuts early.
A live product is not proof of paid demand. Capital can be lost.
21 / 21 · Next step
Your industry.
A live demo.
Then the documents.
Spend 15 minutes with Luka Lah & Klemen. Run HeatSeak on your industry and city; inspect the businesses, contacts and evidence it returns.
First: inspect the product
Check the sources and missing fields. Discuss the customers you would want us to serve.
Then: review the deal
One open seat: $100,000 for 25%. Review shares, information rights and final terms in the documents.
Why this number · sources & assumptions
Proposed next step · 2026-10-16
15-minute live demo on the investor’s industry, then documents.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder brief. Internal source; no public link.
Proposed deal; founder-reported commitment · 2026-10-16
$200,000 straight equity for 50%. Klemen: $100,000 committed for 25%; open seat: $100,000 for 25%; Luka retains 50%. Subject to signed documents; information rights to confirm.
See stated basis; control limits are sensitivity settings, not benchmark bounds.
Source: Founder instruction; short deck slide 7. Internal source; no public link.